Geopredict uses data science to comprehensively evaluate mineral rights. We are backed by one of the largest institutional investors in the US, the YCombinator ($100B combined portfolio value, early investors into Airbnb and Dropbox).
How to Evaluate Mineral Rights: the Industry Gold Standard
Risk and Uncertainty of Timing: value of mineral rights depends primarily on the timing of drilling. Since it's unknown for most operators, a consideration is made based on the historical drilling performance and the availability of other assets for drilling for that operator.
Expected Ultimate Recovery: EUR, this is our best estimate for the total amount of recoverable oil and gas out of the unit. Total EUR is determined as EUR per well X number of wells expected in the unit. Per well EUR is determined based on the performance of existing nearby wells in the same target rock formation. Number of wells expected in the unit is determined based on the unitization characteristic for that target rock formation, i.e. how many wells per unit have been drilled nearby into that specific target formation.
Bringing it together: final evaluation of minerals is determined by taking the total EUR, multiplying it by the net revenue interest of the acreage, and discounting it at a 10% rate based on our best estimate of timing to drilling (this is known as PV10 in the industry).
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